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September corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 4 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed up 18 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 18 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 cent, September Chicago wheat was up 3 1/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.31 at 98.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 124.0 points at 44,371.0. August gold is up $24.60 at $3,361.30, September silver is up $0.03 at $38.14 and September copper is down $0.0635. August crude oil is down $0.19 at $66.33, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0133, August RBOB gasoline is down $0.0279 and August natural gas is up $0.016.

September corn futures closed up 4 cents Wednesday at $4.05 1/4. December futures were up 4 1/4 cents at $4.24. Corn futures were able to add another positive session to remain perfect for the week thus far. Pollination window speculation is at full swing this week with murmurings of issues in areas in the Eastern Corn Belt likely playing a role in motivating short-covering among traders. Otherwise, heading into this crucial period there are some areas that will be needing the forecasted rainfall through the balance of July very badly and it will be important to monitor potential hits and misses through the month. Weather updates are due on Thursday both from the National Drought Monitor as well as NOAA's seasonal outlook which will shed more light on the situation heading into the latter half of the summer.

Wednesday's Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration showed weekly ethanol production averaged 1.087 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, just above the prior week's 1.085 million bpd average, and within trade expectations. This total was below the same period last year by less than 2% but 3% higher than the previous 4-year average for the second week of July. Total ethanol production for the corn marketing year thus far slipped just slightly to 3.5% ahead of the 2023-24 season.

In corn technicals, December futures were able to reclaim former support above $4.20 at least for Wednesday but ran into resistance at the 20-day moving average near $4.25 3/4, the daily high for December corn. This is the immediate bullish target for a continuation of the rally. Support to watch will first be at $4.20 and then at $4.15.

The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.89. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 13 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.93.

August soybeans were up 18 1/2 cents at $10.13 1/2, while November soybeans closed up 18 3/4 cents at $10.20 1/2 on Wednesday. The soybean market jolted awake at midweek following a series of holds above the $10.00 mark for the November contract. USDA also announced a 4.4 million bushel (mb) new-crop soybean flash sale to unknown destinations which has led to speculation that the sale may in fact be to China. Time will tell on that; but either way the soybean export program is entering an important stretch of weeks for building the book of sales for the 2025-26 season.

In other bullish news for soybeans, NOPA crush for June set a record for that month at 185.7 mb, despite being just under 4% lower than May's volume due to an expected seasonal dip. The average NOPA member share of total U.S. crush of 94% would imply total June crush of near 197 mb. Overall, the 2024-25 crush program is well on pace to hit the USDA goal of 2.420 bb for the soybean marketing year. Meanwhile, NOPA also reported soybean oil stocks at 1.366 billion pounds, the lowest for June since 2024 as reported by Reuters on Tuesday. Soybean oil futures are up against resistance near 55 cents per pound, a close above which would put the 2025 high of 55.98 as the bullish goal.

In soybean technicals, November futures were able to reclaim a close above former support near $10.15, which will be important to monitor for support on a potential retest through the balance of the trading week. A successful footing here sets up the major moving averages in the $10.27-$10.34 range as a bullish target. It is also worth noting the chart gap which remains unfilled from $10.39 1/2 to $10.44 1/4.

The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.51. Tuesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 44 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $9.70.

September Kansas City futures fell 1 cent Wednesday to $4.22 3/4. September Chicago futures were up 3 1/4 cents, while MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures also struggled to gain momentum, falling 1 3/4 cents. Overall, it was a frustrating session for the wheat market as prices were ultimately unable to really ever get going in the face of harvest pressure as well as decent rainfall chances for needy spring wheat areas in the northern reaches of the U.S. Plains.

In world wheat news, Paris milling futures are also struggling to find momentum, translated to roughly $6.30 per bushel currently and stuck in a 2-month range between $6.20 and $6.50, as well as lower in three out of the past four sessions. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimated 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 million metric tons (mmt), up considerably from a generally poor 2024 crop. In their weekly update, the International Grains Council (IGC) reported generally weaker world FOB export values, with Russian offers remaining near the lowest offer but IGC noting the slow pace to harvest has kept trading activity at a minimum.

In wheat technicals, September Kansas City futures have settled into a very narrow trading range this week, with closes of down 1 1/4 cents, up 1 3/4 cents, and down 1 cent through Wednesday, with intraday moves in either direction lacking conviction. Support near $5.20 is likely the last level above the September contract low at $5.15 1/2. Resistance is currently near $5.27 or so for the immediate outlook.

The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $4.71. Wednesday's futures close and implied basis of 53 cents under the September board for HRW would indicate the index for Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.70.

GRAINS:Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/06/11201542/30001.mp3">HERE</a> for audioSeptember corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 4 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed up 18 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 18 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 cent, September Chicago wheat was up 3 1/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents.The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.31 at 98.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 124.0 points at 44,371.0. August gold is up $24.60 at $3,361.30, September silver is up $0.03 at $38.14 and September copper is down $0.0635. August crude oil is down $0.19 at $66.33, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0133, August RBOB gasoline is down $0.0279 and August natural gas is up $0.016.CORN:September corn futures closed up 4 cents Wednesday at $4.05 1/4. December futures were up 4 1/4 cents at $4.24. Corn futures were able to add another positive session to remain perfect for the week thus far. Pollination window speculation is at full swing this week with murmurings of issues in areas in the Eastern Corn Belt likely playing a role in motivating short-covering among traders. Otherwise, heading into this crucial period there are some areas that will be needing the forecasted rainfall through the balance of July very badly and it will be important to monitor potential hits and misses through the month. Weather updates are due on Thursday both from the National Drought Monitor as well as NOAA's seasonal outlook which will shed more light on the situation heading into the latter half of the summer.Wednesday's Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration showed weekly ethanol production averaged 1.087 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, just above the prior week's 1.085 million bpd average, and within trade expectations. This total was below the same period last year by less than 2% but 3% higher than the previous 4-year average for the second week of July. Total ethanol production for the corn marketing year thus far slipped just slightly to 3.5% ahead of the 2023-24 season.In corn technicals, December futures were able to reclaim former support above $4.20 at least for Wednesday but ran into resistance at the 20-day moving average near $4.25 3/4, the daily high for December corn. This is the immediate bullish target for a continuation of the rally. Support to watch will first be at $4.20 and then at $4.15.The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.89. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 13 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.93.SOYBEANS:August soybeans were up 18 1/2 cents at $10.13 1/2, while November soybeans closed up 18 3/4 cents at $10.20 1/2 on Wednesday. The soybean market jolted awake at midweek following a series of holds above the $10.00 mark for the November contract. USDA also announced a 4.4 million bushel (mb) new-crop soybean flash sale to unknown destinations which has led to speculation that the sale may in fact be to China. Time will tell on that; but either way the soybean export program is entering an important stretch of weeks for building the book of sales for the 2025-26 season.In other bullish news for soybeans, NOPA crush for June set a record for that month at 185.7 mb, despite being just under 4% lower than May's volume due to an expected seasonal dip. The average NOPA member share of total U.S. crush of 94% would imply total June crush of near 197 mb. Overall, the 2024-25 crush program is well on pace to hit the USDA goal of 2.420 bb for the soybean marketing year. Meanwhile, NOPA also reported soybean oil stocks at 1.366 billion pounds, the lowest for June since 2024 as reported by Reuters on Tuesday. Soybean oil futures are up against resistance near 55 cents per pound, a close above which would put the 2025 high of 55.98 as the bullish goal.In soybean technicals, November futures were able to reclaim a close above former support near $10.15, which will be important to monitor for support on a potential retest through the balance of the trading week. A successful footing here sets up the major moving averages in the $10.27-$10.34 range as a bullish target. It is also worth noting the chart gap which remains unfilled from $10.39 1/2 to $10.44 1/4.The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.51. Tuesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 44 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $9.70.WHEAT:September Kansas City futures fell 1 cent Wednesday to $4.22 3/4. September Chicago futures were up 3 1/4 cents, while MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures also struggled to gain momentum, falling 1 3/4 cents. Overall, it was a frustrating session for the wheat market as prices were ultimately unable to really ever get going in the face of harvest pressure as well as decent rainfall chances for needy spring wheat areas in the northern reaches of the U.S. Plains.In world wheat news, Paris milling futures are also struggling to find momentum, translated to roughly $6.30 per bushel currently and stuck in a 2-month range between $6.20 and $6.50, as well as lower in three out of the past four sessions. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimated 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 million metric tons (mmt), up considerably from a generally poor 2024 crop. In their weekly update, the International Grains Council (IGC) reported generally weaker world FOB export values, with Russian offers remaining near the lowest offer but IGC noting the slow pace to harvest has kept trading activity at a minimum.In wheat technicals, September Kansas City futures have settled into a very narrow trading range this week, with closes of down 1 1/4 cents, up 1 3/4 cents, and down 1 cent through Wednesday, with intraday moves in either direction lacking conviction. Support near $5.20 is likely the last level above the September contract low at $5.15 1/2. Resistance is currently near $5.27 or so for the immediate outlook.The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $4.71. Wednesday's futures close and implied basis of 53 cents under the September board for HRW would indicate the index for Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.70.

Commodity markets daily recap

September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 6 cents and November soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents.

Row-crop prices once again wavered Tuesday as traders are very indecisive at this point of where to send prices next. Long-term support immediately below current prices perhaps signals to some traders they have adequately priced in their bearish outlook for the time being. Outside markets were mixed following the June Consumer Price Index report which showed a slight uptick in inflation as compared to May but was also in line with expectations at 2.7%, year-over-year. Still, this widens the gap between the current rate and the Fed's target rate of 2%, adding to unlikeliness of a cut to interest rates in the Fed meeting toward the end of this month. The current CME FedWatch tool shows a 97.4% chance the target range of 4.25-4.50% is held by the FOMC at that meeting. This will most likely turn up the tension between the Trump administration and Fed Chair Jerome Powell again, adding another layer of uncertainty and anxiety to the marketplace.

Live cattle futures have rallied higher Tuesday morning despite an uncertain start in the early minutes of trade. Active triple-digit gains were seen in all live cattle futures with spot month August futures leading the market higher. Although, the August contract is technically leading the market higher, the focus on October and December contracts was the main driver of the renewed market support. Any pressure seen on Monday in the complex seems to have at least temporarily been eased, with traders looking for continued support in both beef values and cash cattle trade at the end of the week. Cash cattle markets remain very slow to start the week.

Feeder cattle complex rallied higher Tuesday with all contracts through March 2026 trading higher as strong underlying support helped move the feeder cattle price above the $320 per cwt levels. The ability to sustain prices at or above this level will not only likely spark additional underlying futures market support but could create additional fundamental support through the entire complex over the near future.

Lean hog futures were sluggish Tuesday with most, if not all, of the attention being diverted to the cattle complex through morning trade. July futures remain positive, but the underlying concerns surrounding potential tariff levels and unknowns of how this will impact long-term trade is putting pressure on fall and winter contract price levels. October futures lead the market lower for nearby trade activity with a $1 per cwt loss at midday. This constitutes not only falling market pressure but widens the spread between front month futures and deferred prices. Currently there remains a $20 per cwt discount in the October contracts, and $28 per cwt discount to December futures. This market difference is accounting for the uncertainty in global pork demand met by U.S. production, and not any sizable shift in overall hog supplies over the upcoming months.

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By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 6 cents and November soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents.Row-crop prices once again wavered Tuesday as traders are very indecisive at this point of where to send prices next. Long-term support immediately below current prices perhaps signals to some traders they have adequately priced in their bearish outlook for the time being. Outside markets were mixed following the June Consumer Price Index report which showed a slight uptick in inflation as compared to May but was also in line with expectations at 2.7%, year-over-year. Still, this widens the gap between the current rate and the Fed's target rate of 2%, adding to unlikeliness of a cut to interest rates in the Fed meeting toward the end of this month. The current CME FedWatch tool shows a 97.4% chance the target range of 4.25-4.50% is held by the FOMC at that meeting. This will most likely turn up the tension between the Trump administration and Fed Chair Jerome Powell again, adding another layer of uncertainty and anxiety to the marketplace.LIVESTOCK:Live cattle futures have rallied higher Tuesday morning despite an uncertain start in the early minutes of trade. Active triple-digit gains were seen in all live cattle futures with spot month August futures leading the market higher. Although, the August contract is technically leading the market higher, the focus on October and December contracts was the main driver of the renewed market support. Any pressure seen on Monday in the complex seems to have at least temporarily been eased, with traders looking for continued support in both beef values and cash cattle trade at the end of the week. Cash cattle markets remain very slow to start the week.Feeder cattle complex rallied higher Tuesday with all contracts through March 2026 trading higher as strong underlying support helped move the feeder cattle price above the $320 per cwt levels. The ability to sustain prices at or above this level will not only likely spark additional underlying futures market support but could create additional fundamental support through the entire complex over the near future. Lean hog futures were sluggish Tuesday with most, if not all, of the attention being diverted to the cattle complex through morning trade. July futures remain positive, but the underlying concerns surrounding potential tariff levels and unknowns of how this will impact long-term trade is putting pressure on fall and winter contract price levels. October futures lead the market lower for nearby trade activity with a $1 per cwt loss at midday. This constitutes not only falling market pressure but widens the spread between front month futures and deferred prices. Currently there remains a $20 per cwt discount in the October contracts, and $28 per cwt discount to December futures. This market difference is accounting for the uncertainty in global pork demand met by U.S. production, and not any sizable shift in overall hog supplies over the upcoming months.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/15152353/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

The 2025 New Century Farmer Conference will take place July 20-24 in Indianapolis, Indiana, bringing together 50 elite FFA alumni from 22 states to advance their leadership and career skills. It was a unique opportunity to learn about working in the agriculture industry from several different experts. Nearly a third of the participants are first-generation producers, with the majority of them being interested in farm ownership or entrepreneurship as potential career paths.

The 2025 New Century Farmer Conference will take place July 20-24 in Indianapolis, Indiana, bringing together 50 elite FFA alumni from 22 states to advance their leadership and career skills. It was a unique opportunity to learn about working in the agriculture industry from several different experts. Nearly a third of the participants are first-generation producers, with the majority of them being interested in farm ownership or entrepreneurship as potential career paths.

Future ag leaders explore innovation and entrepreneurship

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump threatened to put a 30 percent tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Europe beginning on August 1, 2025. The move comes after weeks of negotiations that have not concluded in a comprehensive trade deal. The President announced the threats in separate letters to Mexican and EU leaders. Those letters were posted on his Truth Social media site on Saturday. 

Reports show the EU and Mexico are among the largest trading partners for the U.S. and responded by calling the tariffs unfair and disruptive while pledging to continue to negotiate with the U.S. for a broader trade deal before the deadline. The effect on U.S. agriculture could be significant. U.S. Department of Agriculture data says Mexico made up 69 percent of America’s vegetable imports and 51 percent of fresh fruit imports. With short shelf lives, produce could see price hikes faster than other goods. 

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump threatened to put a 30 percent tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Europe beginning on August 1, 2025. The move comes after weeks of negotiations that have not concluded in a comprehensive trade deal. The President announced the threats in separate letters to Mexican and EU leaders. Those letters were posted on his Truth Social media site on Saturday. Reports show the EU and Mexico are among the largest trading partners for the U.S. and responded by calling the tariffs unfair and disruptive while pledging to continue to negotiate with the U.S. for a broader trade deal before the deadline. The effect on U.S. agriculture could be significant. U.S. Department of Agriculture data says Mexico made up 69 percent of America’s vegetable imports and 51 percent of fresh fruit imports. With short shelf lives, produce could see price hikes faster than other goods. -NAFB

Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30 percent tariff

September corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 5 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 10 cents.

Row crop prices posted double-digit trading ranges on Monday in the first full session removed from Friday's USDA updates. It appears traders are torn between their previous bearish rationale given there has been little change on the weather radar with ample precipitation through the next 15 days. Outside markets were mixed Monday with stock indices recovering from a lower start amid heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico as well as the European Union. The EU has stated that retaliatory action will not be considered until following the Aug. 1 deadline, so investors took that with a hint of optimism. Energy markets on the other hand turned lower after a firm start as traders and investors await further news on possible U.S. sanctions against Russia, meanwhile the ongoing tariff headlines and OPEC+ production increases through summer are weighing on prices.

After aggressively running to new contract highs on Friday, the live cattle complex walked back some of the recent position it has concurred as traders aren't as bullish at the start of this week. Some external pressures, such as the high tariffs threat on Russia if a peace deal isn't met within 50 days could be unsettling to traders, but more than anything, it seems as though traders are still catching their breath from last week's whirlwind-like trade and are trying to decipher what to do with the market now.

The feeder cattle complex was feeling the same pressure that's affecting the live cattle complex, but only in a more aggressive form as most of its contracts traded $4.00 to $5.00 lower. Although the board traded sharply lower, it's likely that sales in the countryside will be largely unphased as supplies are limited enough that buyers have to remain aggressive if they want to fulfill their orders.

The lean hog complex saw some of the same skepticism from traders that the cattle complex did, but not near as dramatically, as most of its contracts are trading just $1.00 to $3.00 lower. What is encouraging to see, however, is the fact that pork cutout values were higher, which is mainly because of the belly's $9.06 jump, but the picnic, rib and ham were all up over $2.00 as well.

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By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 5 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 10 cents.Row crop prices posted double-digit trading ranges on Monday in the first full session removed from Friday's USDA updates. It appears traders are torn between their previous bearish rationale given there has been little change on the weather radar with ample precipitation through the next 15 days. Outside markets were mixed Monday with stock indices recovering from a lower start amid heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico as well as the European Union. The EU has stated that retaliatory action will not be considered until following the Aug. 1 deadline, so investors took that with a hint of optimism. Energy markets on the other hand turned lower after a firm start as traders and investors await further news on possible U.S. sanctions against Russia, meanwhile the ongoing tariff headlines and OPEC+ production increases through summer are weighing on prices.LIVESTOCK:After aggressively running to new contract highs on Friday, the live cattle complex walked back some of the recent position it has concurred as traders aren't as bullish at the start of this week. Some external pressures, such as the high tariffs threat on Russia if a peace deal isn't met within 50 days could be unsettling to traders, but more than anything, it seems as though traders are still catching their breath from last week's whirlwind-like trade and are trying to decipher what to do with the market now.The feeder cattle complex was feeling the same pressure that's affecting the live cattle complex, but only in a more aggressive form as most of its contracts traded $4.00 to $5.00 lower. Although the board traded sharply lower, it's likely that sales in the countryside will be largely unphased as supplies are limited enough that buyers have to remain aggressive if they want to fulfill their orders.The lean hog complex saw some of the same skepticism from traders that the cattle complex did, but not near as dramatically, as most of its contracts are trading just $1.00 to $3.00 lower. What is encouraging to see, however, is the fact that pork cutout values were higher, which is mainly because of the belly's $9.06 jump, but the picnic, rib and ham were all up over $2.00 as well.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/14142149/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

In Friday’s WASDE report, USDA pegged 2025/2026 corn and wheat ending stocks lower month-over-month and lower than the average trade expectation, while soybean ending stocks were increased month-over-month more than the average expectation. Old-crop corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.75 billion bushels. The 2025-26 production was lowered by 115 million bushels to 15.7 billion bushels. Corn planted acres were lowered 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, matching the June 30 crop report. 

Harvested acres are projected at 86.8 million, down 600,000 acres from June. USDA integrated its 83.4-million-acre soybean planting estimate into its supply and demand forecast, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in production to 4.335 mb. The forecast for 2025-26 soybean ending stocks increased by 15 mb to 310 mb, within the range of pre-report expectations. Along with lower production, USDA increased its crush forecast by 50 mb, while cutting exports by 70 mb.

In Friday’s WASDE report, USDA pegged 2025/2026 corn and wheat ending stocks lower month-over-month and lower than the average trade expectation, while soybean ending stocks were increased month-over-month more than the average expectation. Old-crop corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.75 billion bushels. The 2025-26 production was lowered by 115 million bushels to 15.7 billion bushels. Corn planted acres were lowered 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, matching the June 30 crop report. Harvested acres are projected at 86.8 million, down 600,000 acres from June. USDA integrated its 83.4-million-acre soybean planting estimate into its supply and demand forecast, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in production to 4.335 mb. The forecast for 2025-26 soybean ending stocks increased by 15 mb to 310 mb, within the range of pre-report expectations. Along with lower production, USDA increased its crush forecast by 50 mb, while cutting exports by 70 mb.-NAFB

USDA slightly lowers corn production, boosts old-crop exports to record level

Agricultural producers who suffered eligible crop losses due to natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 can now apply for $16 billion in assistance through the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program. To expedite the help, assistance from the Farm Service Agency is coming in two stages. This first is open to producers with eligible crop losses who received assistance under crop insurance or the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program during 2023 and 2024. 

Stage One sign-ups started in person at FSA County Offices late last week, and prefilled applications are on the way to producers through the mail. Stage Two sign-ups for eligible shallow or uncovered losses begin in early Fall. Eligible losses must be the result of natural disasters occurring in calendar years 2023 and-or 2024. To qualify for drought losses, it must have occurred in a D2 or D3 drought or greater intensity level during the applicable calendar year. 

Agricultural producers who suffered eligible crop losses due to natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 can now apply for $16 billion in assistance through the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program. To expedite the help, assistance from the Farm Service Agency is coming in two stages. This first is open to producers with eligible crop losses who received assistance under crop insurance or the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program during 2023 and 2024. Stage One sign-ups started in person at FSA County Offices late last week, and prefilled applications are on the way to producers through the mail. Stage Two sign-ups for eligible shallow or uncovered losses begin in early Fall. Eligible losses must be the result of natural disasters occurring in calendar years 2023 and-or 2024. To qualify for drought losses, it must have occurred in a D2 or D3 drought or greater intensity level during the applicable calendar year. -NAFB

2023-24 disaster assistance for farmers now available

September corn closed down 3 1/4 cents and December corn was down 4 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 8 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 10 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 9 1/2 cents, September&nbsp; Minneapolis wheat was down 18 cents.

September corn closed down 24 1/4 cents and December corn was down 24 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 52 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 42 cents. September KC wheat closed down 13 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 32 cents.

The market feature for Friday was the release of the July WASDE and Crop Production report from USDA. The report came in mostly in line with trader and analyst expectations with a few curveballs from the government. Overall, despite some of the estimates certainly having a bullish twist, market reaction was one of intense skepticism especially regarding the lower production estimates from USDA for the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops amid the rainy forecast for mid to late June. Moving forward, it will be a very interesting dynamic to watch the ongoing bearish weather trade go up against long-term support as row crops trade among and in a few instances beyond their 2025 lows into mid-summer.

What a day, what a day, what a day! The live cattle complex, upon seeing some light trade finally develop in the fed cash cattle market -- traders took one look at what the prices were of the cash market and opted to shoot the live cattle contracts mostly $2.00 to $3.00 higher. A light trade developed this morning in the North at $380, which is $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average in Nebraska. Some Southern live cattle have traded at $228 to $230, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. From a sheerly fundamental aspect, the power in this week's fed cash cattle market far outweighs the bearish note of the seasonal decline in boxed beef prices, which is why traders are willing to propel the contracts higher.

It was another exhilarating day for the feeder cattle complex as the market traded higher thanks to the continued support of strong market fundamentals, and the sheer willingness of traders to remain engaged in the marketplace. All throughout the week, the feeder cattle complex was well supported. Buyers have aggressively been procuring calves in auctions throughout the countryside, but upon seeing the fed cash cattle market trade higher -- the feeder cattle complex grabbed another bullish factor and opted to continue to trade higher.

The lean hog complex traded lower into Friday's close as pork cutout values were slightly lower and there simply isn't enough trader support to push the contracts higher at this point. It's likely that the market continues to trade in this sluggish manner into early next week.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/11151446/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 3 1/4 cents and December corn was down 4 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 8 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 10 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 9 1/2 cents, September&nbsp; Minneapolis wheat was down 18 cents.For the week:September corn closed down 24 1/4 cents and December corn was down 24 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 52 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 42 cents. September KC wheat closed down 13 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 32 cents.The market feature for Friday was the release of the July WASDE and Crop Production report from USDA. The report came in mostly in line with trader and analyst expectations with a few curveballs from the government. Overall, despite some of the estimates certainly having a bullish twist, market reaction was one of intense skepticism especially regarding the lower production estimates from USDA for the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops amid the rainy forecast for mid to late June. Moving forward, it will be a very interesting dynamic to watch the ongoing bearish weather trade go up against long-term support as row crops trade among and in a few instances beyond their 2025 lows into mid-summer.LIVESTOCK:What a day, what a day, what a day! The live cattle complex, upon seeing some light trade finally develop in the fed cash cattle market -- traders took one look at what the prices were of the cash market and opted to shoot the live cattle contracts mostly $2.00 to $3.00 higher. A light trade developed this morning in the North at $380, which is $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average in Nebraska. Some Southern live cattle have traded at $228 to $230, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. From a sheerly fundamental aspect, the power in this week's fed cash cattle market far outweighs the bearish note of the seasonal decline in boxed beef prices, which is why traders are willing to propel the contracts higher. It was another exhilarating day for the feeder cattle complex as the market traded higher thanks to the continued support of strong market fundamentals, and the sheer willingness of traders to remain engaged in the marketplace. All throughout the week, the feeder cattle complex was well supported. Buyers have aggressively been procuring calves in auctions throughout the countryside, but upon seeing the fed cash cattle market trade higher -- the feeder cattle complex grabbed another bullish factor and opted to continue to trade higher.The lean hog complex traded lower into Friday's close as pork cutout values were slightly lower and there simply isn't enough trader support to push the contracts higher at this point. It's likely that the market continues to trade in this sluggish manner into early next week.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/11151446/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

USDA says per capita total U.S. food spending increased 3.2 percent from 2023 to 2024, slightly outpacing the 2.3 percent increase in food prices during the same period. That showed a stronger demand for food despite higher prices. However, national trends in sales mask uneven growth across multiple U.S. states. Three states showed a decrease in per capita food sales, with New Hampshire dropping the most at two percent in 2024. 

This was driven by a 6.6 percent increase in sales at grocery stores, supercenters, and other food-at-home stores. West Virginia and Kansas were the only other states where total per capita food sales declined, dropping by one percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Per capita food sales increased the most in Washington, D.C., rising ten percent, and were driven by food away from home sales. Other states with high growth included New York at 5.9 percent and California at 5.5 percent.

USDA says per capita total U.S. food spending increased 3.2 percent from 2023 to 2024, slightly outpacing the 2.3 percent increase in food prices during the same period. That showed a stronger demand for food despite higher prices. However, national trends in sales mask uneven growth across multiple U.S. states. Three states showed a decrease in per capita food sales, with New Hampshire dropping the most at two percent in 2024. This was driven by a 6.6 percent increase in sales at grocery stores, supercenters, and other food-at-home stores. West Virginia and Kansas were the only other states where total per capita food sales declined, dropping by one percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Per capita food sales increased the most in Washington, D.C., rising ten percent, and were driven by food away from home sales. Other states with high growth included New York at 5.9 percent and California at 5.5 percent.-NAFB

Food spending increases from 2023-2024

A new case of New World screwworm appeared this week, only 160 miles from the Mexico-U.S. border. USDA had previously announced a risk-based phased-in port reopening strategy for cattle, bison, and equine from Mexico that began on July 7. The new case raises significant concerns in the U.S. and compromises the outlined port reopening schedule for five ports in the southern U.S. 

In order to protect American livestock and the nation’s food supply, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins has ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately. “The U.S. promised to be vigilant, and after detecting the new case, we are pausing the planned port reopenings to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico,” Rollins said. “We must see progress in multiple Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the southern border.” Aggressive USDA staff monitoring allowed the U.S. to take quick action.

A new case of New World screwworm appeared this week, only 160 miles from the Mexico-U.S. border. USDA had previously announced a risk-based phased-in port reopening strategy for cattle, bison, and equine from Mexico that began on July 7. The new case raises significant concerns in the U.S. and compromises the outlined port reopening schedule for five ports in the southern U.S. In order to protect American livestock and the nation’s food supply, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins has ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately. “The U.S. promised to be vigilant, and after detecting the new case, we are pausing the planned port reopenings to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico,” Rollins said. “We must see progress in multiple Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the southern border.” Aggressive USDA staff monitoring allowed the U.S. to take quick action.-NAFB

Rollins shuts down southern ports again

September corn closed unchanged and December corn was up 1 cent. August soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 10 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 7 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cent.

It was another session featuring futures squaring ahead of Friday's USDA release with row crop markets holding even to slightly higher for the most part. Wheat markets led the way higher, showing some life on the Kansas City board following Wednesday's reversal near contract lows. The thing most traders are anticipating on Friday's USDA release is how traders will react if adjustments are in fact at least temporarily bullish in direction. Given that weather and thus far strong crop conditions have really been the sole focus of bearish traders through the past few weeks, it will be interesting to see if Friday's estimates are taken with a grain of salt.

The live cattle complex&nbsp;traded mixed into Thursday's close, seeming to again hold its breath until there's an understanding of the direction fed cash cattle prices are going to trade this week. A few bids are on the table at mostly $223 in the South, but a regional packer is currently bidding up to $227. But with asking prices firm in the South at $228 to $230, still no cattle have traded yet. And the North remains incredibly quiet with no bids or asking prices having been posted just yet. Upon seeing that boxed beef prices are lower again today, it's safe to say that the seasonal downward trend of the third quarter for boxed beef prices has been set into motion.

With the USDA's updated announcement that the US border is again closed to Mexican imports, the feeder cattle complex again gained another leg up and traders are continuing to support its higher trend. We know that domestic supplies are tight, and buyer demand remains red hot, which is why traders remain confident in continuing to push the contracts higher.

Pork cutout values may be higher, but the lean hog complex went lower in part due to the slight downturn of exports having a negative impact on trader's minds as the contracts traded fully lower into Thursday's close. The carcass price was realistically able to print higher this morning because of the heavy lifting done by the belly which jumped $4.51 higher, and the ham which jumped $4.24.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/10152320/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed unchanged and December corn was up 1 cent. August soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 10 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 7 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cent.It was another session featuring futures squaring ahead of Friday's USDA release with row crop markets holding even to slightly higher for the most part. Wheat markets led the way higher, showing some life on the Kansas City board following Wednesday's reversal near contract lows. The thing most traders are anticipating on Friday's USDA release is how traders will react if adjustments are in fact at least temporarily bullish in direction. Given that weather and thus far strong crop conditions have really been the sole focus of bearish traders through the past few weeks, it will be interesting to see if Friday's estimates are taken with a grain of salt.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex&nbsp;traded mixed into Thursday's close, seeming to again hold its breath until there's an understanding of the direction fed cash cattle prices are going to trade this week. A few bids are on the table at mostly $223 in the South, but a regional packer is currently bidding up to $227. But with asking prices firm in the South at $228 to $230, still no cattle have traded yet. And the North remains incredibly quiet with no bids or asking prices having been posted just yet. Upon seeing that boxed beef prices are lower again today, it's safe to say that the seasonal downward trend of the third quarter for boxed beef prices has been set into motion.With the USDA's updated announcement that the US border is again closed to Mexican imports, the feeder cattle complex again gained another leg up and traders are continuing to support its higher trend. We know that domestic supplies are tight, and buyer demand remains red hot, which is why traders remain confident in continuing to push the contracts higher.Pork cutout values may be higher, but the lean hog complex went lower in part due to the slight downturn of exports having a negative impact on trader's minds as the contracts traded fully lower into Thursday's close. The carcass price was realistically able to print higher this morning because of the heavy lifting done by the belly which jumped $4.51 higher, and the ham which jumped $4.24.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/10152320/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

June runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 3.3 million acre-feet, 60 percent of the average. The updated 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City is below average. Mountain snowpack melted more rapidly than normal, and all reaches except the Sioux City reach experienced below normal precipitation during June,” said John Remus of the Army Corps of Engineers. “The June runoff was less than forecast, and dry conditions will continue in July.” 

The June 2025 runoff forecast above Sioux City is 19.1 million acre-feet, 74 percent of the average and slightly lower than last month’s forecast. System storage on July 1 was 52.1 million acre-feet, four million below the top of the carryover multiple-use zone. The monthly study indicates that the winter release from Gavins Point will likely be at the minimum rate of 12,000 cubic feet per second. 

June runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 3.3 million acre-feet, 60 percent of the average. The updated 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City is below average. Mountain snowpack melted more rapidly than normal, and all reaches except the Sioux City reach experienced below normal precipitation during June,” said John Remus of the Army Corps of Engineers. “The June runoff was less than forecast, and dry conditions will continue in July.” The June 2025 runoff forecast above Sioux City is 19.1 million acre-feet, 74 percent of the average and slightly lower than last month’s forecast. System storage on July 1 was 52.1 million acre-feet, four million below the top of the carryover multiple-use zone. The monthly study indicates that the winter release from Gavins Point will likely be at the minimum rate of 12,000 cubic feet per second. -NAFB

June Missouri River runoff far below average

All summer, Farmers for Free Trade has been on the road and holding events called Tariff Town Halls in half a dozen states. The events all brought together farmers, business leaders, economists, and trade experts to spotlight how newly-imposed tariffs are already harming the communities that grow and make American-made products that power local economies and are in demand around the world. At each stop, farmers and experts shared new data, on-the-ground stories, and growing urgency. 

Just days before the Fourth of July, agricultural leaders at a town hall in Little Rock, Arkansas put it bluntly: “I’ll tell you this much as a producer. Between 20 and 30 percent of the producers in the United States would be out if this doesn’t change between now and December.” On a per-state basis, Texas businesses paid $934 million more in tariff costs. North Carolina also saw a 190 percent spike in its tariff costs. 

All summer, Farmers for Free Trade has been on the road and holding events called Tariff Town Halls in half a dozen states. The events all brought together farmers, business leaders, economists, and trade experts to spotlight how newly-imposed tariffs are already harming the communities that grow and make American-made products that power local economies and are in demand around the world. At each stop, farmers and experts shared new data, on-the-ground stories, and growing urgency. Just days before the Fourth of July, agricultural leaders at a town hall in Little Rock, Arkansas put it bluntly: “I’ll tell you this much as a producer. Between 20 and 30 percent of the producers in the United States would be out if this doesn’t change between now and December.” On a per-state basis, Texas businesses paid $934 million more in tariff costs. North Carolina also saw a 190 percent spike in its tariff costs. -NAFB

Farmers for Free Trade sounding economic alarm regarding tariffs

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/09142119/30001-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> to listen to audio

September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 12 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 10 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 1 3/4 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.01 at 97.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 141.0 points at 44,653.0. August gold is up $3.80 at $3,320.70, September silver is down $0.16 at $36.59 and September copper is down $0.1520. August crude oil is up $0.03 at $68.36, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0330, August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0029 and August natural gas is down $0.131.

September corn futures traded 1 1/4 cents higher on Wednesday to $3.99 1/4. New-crop December futures were up 1 1/4 cents to $4.15 1/2. It was a marginal recovery for corn on Wednesday as prices managed to bounce of daily lows, but September futures failed to regain support above $4.00 and December remained below former support near $4.20 as traders clearly remain tentative about exiting short positions ahead of the USDA report Friday, but more importantly ahead of what remains a friendly weather outlook for corn pollination through the middle part of July.

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly Petroleum Status report early Wednesday, pegging ethanol production in the U.S. at 1.085 million barrels per day (mbpd), snapping a three-week decline. Ethanol production through the first few days of July remains a steady 3.7% ahead of the 2023-24 corn marketing year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 24 million barrels, down slightly from the previous week, but up 1.5% from the same period in 2024. Ahead of the USDA report on Friday, I am still forecasting slightly less corn used for ethanol in 2024-25 than USDA, at 5.450 billion bushels (bb) versus USDA at 5.5 bb. However, it must be mentioned that there is wide variability in ethanol production and subsequent corn usage through July and August historically, so I would not be surprised to see USDA leave their estimate unchanged in Friday's release.

Despite the clear pricing in of a higher than trend yield for 2025, it is unlikely given the history of the July WASDE that USDA will change the corn yield on Friday. That along with slightly less acreage thanks to the update at the end of June, should leave 2025 production less than previously estimated. The biggest changes to the balance sheet will come from the 2024-25 ending stocks, of which I remain nervous that increases may come eventually due to less feed, residual and ethanol usage than currently being forecasted. The good news is that potential for increased exports still remains, which should partially offset any reductions to other categories either in Friday's report or subsequent reports. Still, the bottom line is that for Friday, new crop ending stocks are expected to be estimated at quite a bit lower than in the July 2024 WASDE report.

For corn technicals, the relative strength index on December corn is showing the potential for a diverging bottom pattern, essentially meaning the drop in prices this week has less momentum than the previous drop seen over late June. This could be a signal that traders are growing satisfied with their risk profile and heavy short positions heading into the crucial weather period for corn pollination. Immediate support is seen just below $4.10 for December futures, while the bullish target remains to reclaim support above $4.20.

The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.85. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 13 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.86.

August soybeans fell another 12 1/4 cents on Wednesday to $10.09. New-crop November soybeans were down 10 1/4 cents to $10.07 1/4. The August soybean contract has given up 46 cents of value through the trading week thus far as traders are apparently seeing enough reason in the good weather to remove risk premium from the market despite the relatively low acreage for soybeans in the U.S. as compared to last year. Concern over export demand next year is certainly playing a role in the bearish price action this week.

For Friday's WASDE, the average trade estimate for 2024-25 soybean ending stocks is for a slight increase to 358 million bushels (mb). I am torn at this point between the surprisingly high June 1 stocks of 1.008 bb, and ahead of pace crush and exports. It would appear if there were a surprising drop in demand, it is coming from the residual category currently. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks hold near 350 mb in Friday's report. As for new crop, I find it also unlikely that we will see any change to the yield, so most likely any changes to 2025-26 carry out will be a result of the aforementioned adjustments to beginning stocks (2024-25 ending stocks) for the marketing year. The average trade estimate ahead of Friday is for 304 mb of soybean ending stocks for 2025-26, as compared to the estimate in 2024 of 435 mb.

For soybean technicals, November futures broke support at $10.15 en route to the lowest close for the contract since April 10. $10.00 is likely the next round of support above the tariff induced plunge to $9.80 seen in early April.

The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.68. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 53 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.56.

Wheat futures were mixed to slightly higher on Wednesday with September Kansas City prices trading 1 1/2 cents higher to $5.24. Chicago futures were fractionally lower on their September contract, while MIAX Minneapolis September futures traded 1 3/4 cents higher.

Friday's WASDE report will include USDA production estimates for the winter wheat crop, which is over 50% harvested as of the beginning of the week. The Dow Jones survey of analysts is on average calling for a decrease in production as compared to the June WASDE and NASS Crop Production reports. Assuming the June 1 stocks estimate released on the June 30 of 851 mb is accurate, the expectation is that 2025-26 wheat stocks will also decrease modestly with the average trade estimate calling for a 5 mb decline to 893 mb.

On the world stage, I will be interested to see how USDA sees China's winter wheat crop after a spring full of speculation regarding the drought conditions experienced in several key growing regions in northeast China. Beyond that, Russia and the EU will also be of key interest to traders, given the reversal in opinions regarding the Russian crop after a very poor start to the growing season, thanks in large part to timely rains this spring.

By MATT PIKEClick <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/09142119/30001-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> to listen to audioGENERAL COMMENTS:September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 12 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 10 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 1 3/4 cents.The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.01 at 97.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 141.0 points at 44,653.0. August gold is up $3.80 at $3,320.70, September silver is down $0.16 at $36.59 and September copper is down $0.1520. August crude oil is up $0.03 at $68.36, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0330, August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0029 and August natural gas is down $0.131.CORN:September corn futures traded 1 1/4 cents higher on Wednesday to $3.99 1/4. New-crop December futures were up 1 1/4 cents to $4.15 1/2. It was a marginal recovery for corn on Wednesday as prices managed to bounce of daily lows, but September futures failed to regain support above $4.00 and December remained below former support near $4.20 as traders clearly remain tentative about exiting short positions ahead of the USDA report Friday, but more importantly ahead of what remains a friendly weather outlook for corn pollination through the middle part of July.The Energy Information Administration released their weekly Petroleum Status report early Wednesday, pegging ethanol production in the U.S. at 1.085 million barrels per day (mbpd), snapping a three-week decline. Ethanol production through the first few days of July remains a steady 3.7% ahead of the 2023-24 corn marketing year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 24 million barrels, down slightly from the previous week, but up 1.5% from the same period in 2024. Ahead of the USDA report on Friday, I am still forecasting slightly less corn used for ethanol in 2024-25 than USDA, at 5.450 billion bushels (bb) versus USDA at 5.5 bb. However, it must be mentioned that there is wide variability in ethanol production and subsequent corn usage through July and August historically, so I would not be surprised to see USDA leave their estimate unchanged in Friday's release.Despite the clear pricing in of a higher than trend yield for 2025, it is unlikely given the history of the July WASDE that USDA will change the corn yield on Friday. That along with slightly less acreage thanks to the update at the end of June, should leave 2025 production less than previously estimated. The biggest changes to the balance sheet will come from the 2024-25 ending stocks, of which I remain nervous that increases may come eventually due to less feed, residual and ethanol usage than currently being forecasted. The good news is that potential for increased exports still remains, which should partially offset any reductions to other categories either in Friday's report or subsequent reports. Still, the bottom line is that for Friday, new crop ending stocks are expected to be estimated at quite a bit lower than in the July 2024 WASDE report.For corn technicals, the relative strength index on December corn is showing the potential for a diverging bottom pattern, essentially meaning the drop in prices this week has less momentum than the previous drop seen over late June. This could be a signal that traders are growing satisfied with their risk profile and heavy short positions heading into the crucial weather period for corn pollination. Immediate support is seen just below $4.10 for December futures, while the bullish target remains to reclaim support above $4.20.The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.85. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 13 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.86.SOYBEANS:August soybeans fell another 12 1/4 cents on Wednesday to $10.09. New-crop November soybeans were down 10 1/4 cents to $10.07 1/4. The August soybean contract has given up 46 cents of value through the trading week thus far as traders are apparently seeing enough reason in the good weather to remove risk premium from the market despite the relatively low acreage for soybeans in the U.S. as compared to last year. Concern over export demand next year is certainly playing a role in the bearish price action this week.For Friday's WASDE, the average trade estimate for 2024-25 soybean ending stocks is for a slight increase to 358 million bushels (mb). I am torn at this point between the surprisingly high June 1 stocks of 1.008 bb, and ahead of pace crush and exports. It would appear if there were a surprising drop in demand, it is coming from the residual category currently. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks hold near 350 mb in Friday's report. As for new crop, I find it also unlikely that we will see any change to the yield, so most likely any changes to 2025-26 carry out will be a result of the aforementioned adjustments to beginning stocks (2024-25 ending stocks) for the marketing year. The average trade estimate ahead of Friday is for 304 mb of soybean ending stocks for 2025-26, as compared to the estimate in 2024 of 435 mb.For soybean technicals, November futures broke support at $10.15 en route to the lowest close for the contract since April 10. $10.00 is likely the next round of support above the tariff induced plunge to $9.80 seen in early April.The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.68. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 53 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.56.WHEAT:Wheat futures were mixed to slightly higher on Wednesday with September Kansas City prices trading 1 1/2 cents higher to $5.24. Chicago futures were fractionally lower on their September contract, while MIAX Minneapolis September futures traded 1 3/4 cents higher.Friday's WASDE report will include USDA production estimates for the winter wheat crop, which is over 50% harvested as of the beginning of the week. The Dow Jones survey of analysts is on average calling for a decrease in production as compared to the June WASDE and NASS Crop Production reports. Assuming the June 1 stocks estimate released on the June 30 of 851 mb is accurate, the expectation is that 2025-26 wheat stocks will also decrease modestly with the average trade estimate calling for a 5 mb decline to 893 mb.On the world stage, I will be interested to see how USDA sees China's winter wheat crop after a spring full of speculation regarding the drought conditions experienced in several key growing regions in northeast China. Beyond that, Russia and the EU will also be of key interest to traders, given the reversal in opinions regarding the Russian crop after a very poor start to the growing season, thanks in large part to timely rains this spring.

The Mexican government has started construction on a $51 million facility in southern Mexico as part of an effort to combat the New World screwworm that’s disrupted Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. Mexico’s agriculture ministry said the plant is a joint project with the U.S. and will produce 100 million sterile screwworm flies per week once completed in the first half of next year. 

The release of sterile flies reduces the population of wild flies and is a key tool in helping to control the damaging pest. The U.S., which is Mexico’s largest trading partner, is paying $21 million of the cost, and the U.S. is spending $30 million. The U.S. also has plans to open a sterile fly dispersal facility in Texas as part of the ongoing battle against screwworm. The pest carries maggots that burrow into the skin of living animals, causing serious and often fatal damage.

The Mexican government has started construction on a $51 million facility in southern Mexico as part of an effort to combat the New World screwworm that’s disrupted Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. Mexico’s agriculture ministry said the plant is a joint project with the U.S. and will produce 100 million sterile screwworm flies per week once completed in the first half of next year. The release of sterile flies reduces the population of wild flies and is a key tool in helping to control the damaging pest. The U.S., which is Mexico’s largest trading partner, is paying $21 million of the cost, and the U.S. is spending $30 million. The U.S. also has plans to open a sterile fly dispersal facility in Texas as part of the ongoing battle against screwworm. The pest carries maggots that burrow into the skin of living animals, causing serious and often fatal damage.-NAFB

Mexico is building a sterile fly plant

Clean Fuels Alliance America CEO Donnell Rehagen testified during the Environmental Protection Agency’s Public Hearing on Proposed Renewable Fuel Standards for 2026 and 2027. Multiple Clean Fuels staff and member companies also testified, thanking EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and EPA staff for proposing a much-needed step-change in the RFS Biomass-Based Diesel obligations. 

Clean Fuels also encouraged the agency to maintain the proposed volumes as it addresses outstanding small refinery exemption petitions. “Our industry has made substantial investments over the past several years in biofuel production, feedstock supply, and distribution infrastructure,” said Rehagen. “We supplied more than five billion gallons of biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF to the U.S. market in 2024, and we are poised to deliver even more by 2026.” Rehagen also said that the markets have reacted in a positive fashion since the rule came out, but uncertainty around small refinery exemptions is still looming over the industry. 

Clean Fuels Alliance America CEO Donnell Rehagen testified during the Environmental Protection Agency’s Public Hearing on Proposed Renewable Fuel Standards for 2026 and 2027. Multiple Clean Fuels staff and member companies also testified, thanking EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and EPA staff for proposing a much-needed step-change in the RFS Biomass-Based Diesel obligations. Clean Fuels also encouraged the agency to maintain the proposed volumes as it addresses outstanding small refinery exemption petitions. “Our industry has made substantial investments over the past several years in biofuel production, feedstock supply, and distribution infrastructure,” said Rehagen. “We supplied more than five billion gallons of biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF to the U.S. market in 2024, and we are poised to deliver even more by 2026.” Rehagen also said that the markets have reacted in a positive fashion since the rule came out, but uncertainty around small refinery exemptions is still looming over the industry. -NAFB

Clean Fuels testifies on EPA’s 2026-2027 RFS rule proposal 

September corn closed down 5 1/2 cents and December corn was down 6 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed down 10 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 3 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 5 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 7 1/2 cents.

Grain markets were lower again on Tuesday as traders are solely focused for the time being on good weather for the growing spring planted crops. It is also safe to say at this point that the crops are passing the "eye test" with USDA giving the corn crop its highest early July rating since 2018. In outside markets, it was a much quieter tone Tuesday compared to Monday as investors and traders seem to have been somewhat calmed by the extension of the tariff cutoff by the Trump administration to Aug. 1, but ongoing trade negotiations will be an important factor for the balance of July. For energy markets, crude oil is working towards a second session higher to start the week despite the announced OPEC+ production increase for August reported over the weekend. Unfortunately, for ag markets, the firmer energy prices did little to prop commodity prices, as currently, weather trade is trumping all.

The live cattle complex's momentum hasn't waned as the contracts traded even higher into Tuesday's closing bell. The spot August contract could begin to feel some resistance pressure as the market is nearing the all-time high made earlier in June. Thankfully, boxed beef prices were higher again this morning, which is adding another bullish gust to trader's already ambitious push. However, it's yet to be seen what fed cash cattle prices are going to do this week. Asking prices are noted at $226 plus in the South, and it has been noted that cattle in western Iowa are priced at $240, but no trade has developed just yet. And given that packers have supplies built up around them, it's likely that prices will be steady at best.

Up, up and away! The feeder cattle complex successfully reached new contract highs as the market is being flooded with support. Buyer demand remains ample in the countryside and thanks to the added technical support of traders willing to invest in the futures complex -- dare I say it's almost been easy for the market to trade higher?

The lean hog complex did not receive the same level of support that the cattle complex did, but with the wild price swings seen lately in pork cutouts, you can hardly blame traders for being cautious. If demand happens to stabilize, then there's a chance that the futures complex could establish some footing in the marketplace and that cash demand may improve.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/08145740/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 5 1/2 cents and December corn was down 6 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed down 10 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 3 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 5 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 7 1/2 cents.Grain markets were lower again on Tuesday as traders are solely focused for the time being on good weather for the growing spring planted crops. It is also safe to say at this point that the crops are passing the "eye test" with USDA giving the corn crop its highest early July rating since 2018. In outside markets, it was a much quieter tone Tuesday compared to Monday as investors and traders seem to have been somewhat calmed by the extension of the tariff cutoff by the Trump administration to Aug. 1, but ongoing trade negotiations will be an important factor for the balance of July. For energy markets, crude oil is working towards a second session higher to start the week despite the announced OPEC+ production increase for August reported over the weekend. Unfortunately, for ag markets, the firmer energy prices did little to prop commodity prices, as currently, weather trade is trumping all.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex's momentum hasn't waned as the contracts traded even higher into Tuesday's closing bell. The spot August contract could begin to feel some resistance pressure as the market is nearing the all-time high made earlier in June. Thankfully, boxed beef prices were higher again this morning, which is adding another bullish gust to trader's already ambitious push. However, it's yet to be seen what fed cash cattle prices are going to do this week. Asking prices are noted at $226 plus in the South, and it has been noted that cattle in western Iowa are priced at $240, but no trade has developed just yet. And given that packers have supplies built up around them, it's likely that prices will be steady at best.Up, up and away! The feeder cattle complex successfully reached new contract highs as the market is being flooded with support. Buyer demand remains ample in the countryside and thanks to the added technical support of traders willing to invest in the futures complex -- dare I say it's almost been easy for the market to trade higher?The lean hog complex did not receive the same level of support that the cattle complex did, but with the wild price swings seen lately in pork cutouts, you can hardly blame traders for being cautious. If demand happens to stabilize, then there's a chance that the futures complex could establish some footing in the marketplace and that cash demand may improve.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/08145740/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture concluded an inbound trade mission with a high-level Moroccan agricultural delegation in June. The visit further strengthened bilateral agricultural cooperation and deepened ties between the U.S. and Morocco, laying important groundwork for continued engagement. The mission also opened new avenues for collaboration and future trade opportunities. NASDA CEO Ted McKinney said “It’s clear there’s a strong appetite on both sides to build long-term trade relationships grounded in shared values and innovation.” 

Moroccan leaders expressed a strong interest in expanding agricultural partnerships with the U.S. Throughout the mission, delegates explored opportunities for trade collaboration in areas like soil management, biotechnology, food safety, drought resilience, and many other areas. The Moroccan delegation included senior officials from the country’s food safety authority and executives from leading agricultural organizations. 

The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture concluded an inbound trade mission with a high-level Moroccan agricultural delegation in June. The visit further strengthened bilateral agricultural cooperation and deepened ties between the U.S. and Morocco, laying important groundwork for continued engagement. The mission also opened new avenues for collaboration and future trade opportunities. NASDA CEO Ted McKinney said “It’s clear there’s a strong appetite on both sides to build long-term trade relationships grounded in shared values and innovation.” Moroccan leaders expressed a strong interest in expanding agricultural partnerships with the U.S. Throughout the mission, delegates explored opportunities for trade collaboration in areas like soil management, biotechnology, food safety, drought resilience, and many other areas. The Moroccan delegation included senior officials from the country’s food safety authority and executives from leading agricultural organizations. -NAFB

NASDA concludes successful trade mission

Sounds of children learning, playing games and giggling filled Northwest Missouri State University’s Agricultural Learning Center this week as agricultural education majors hosted their second annual Ag Camp. About 150 children, spanning ages 5 through 10 and coming from locations throughout northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa attended the camp over three afternoons.

Emma Brushwood, a senior from Elsberry, Missouri, helped launch the camp last year and led it again this summer said, “I just want the kids to know where everything they use every single day comes from ag feeds us, ag clothes us, ag makes sure that we live every single day.” 

Using a classroom-based curriculum provided by Agriculture Education on the Move, Brushwood and four other agricultural education majors who are summer interns with the program led children through activities that taught them about crops, animals and other aspects of the field.

On Tuesday, campers created soybean germination necklaces and made plastic from a combination of cornstarch, water and oil. On Wednesday, campers learned about feed rations by creating a snack mix with varied cereals and Skittles and then studying the amount of fats, proteins, sugars and vitamins within the mix. Campers also made butter, examined the parts of a hard-boiled egg, and they put on blindfolds to try pinning a tail on a cardboard pig or placing horns on a paper goat head.

During the final day of the camp on Thursday, they got close-up looks at a calf, goats, pigs and sheep to reinforce some of the things they learned. Across the parking lot, they saw large farm equipment, including tractors, balers, a corn treater and a semi-truck while discussing potential careers in agriculture.

Sounds of children learning, playing games and giggling filled Northwest Missouri State University’s Agricultural Learning Center this week as agricultural education majors hosted their second annual Ag Camp. About 150 children, spanning ages 5 through 10 and coming from locations throughout northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa attended the camp over three afternoons.Emma Brushwood, a senior from Elsberry, Missouri, helped launch the camp last year and led it again this summer said, “I just want the kids to know where everything they use every single day comes from ag feeds us, ag clothes us, ag makes sure that we live every single day.” Using a classroom-based curriculum provided by Agriculture Education on the Move, Brushwood and four other agricultural education majors who are summer interns with the program led children through activities that taught them about crops, animals and other aspects of the field.On Tuesday, campers created soybean germination necklaces and made plastic from a combination of cornstarch, water and oil. On Wednesday, campers learned about feed rations by creating a snack mix with varied cereals and Skittles and then studying the amount of fats, proteins, sugars and vitamins within the mix. Campers also made butter, examined the parts of a hard-boiled egg, and they put on blindfolds to try pinning a tail on a cardboard pig or placing horns on a paper goat head.During the final day of the camp on Thursday, they got close-up looks at a calf, goats, pigs and sheep to reinforce some of the things they learned. Across the parking lot, they saw large farm equipment, including tractors, balers, a corn treater and a semi-truck while discussing potential careers in agriculture.

Day camp helps children learn about agriculture while students practice teaching skills

September corn closed down 16 3/4 cents and December corn was down 16 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 24 cents and November soybeans were down 28 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 8 1/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 0 cents.

Another Monday, another very ugly day for price action across grain futures as traders came back from the Independence Day break eager to add short positions to their portfolios. In fact, September corn futures haven't opened a trading week with a positive session since May 19, while August soybean futures have also traded lower in five out of the past six Monday sessions. Traders were clearly frustrated that the most recent wave of trade optimism following the agreement with Vietnam last week didn't amount to further ag-centric announcements from President Trump. Meanwhile, growing season weather is friendly and market seasonality is firmly against prices at this point. Ag markets were not alone in expressing tariff and trade-related nervousness, as stock indices fell on Monday as well ahead of the July 9th tariff deadline, although it is appearing likely the deadline will be extended in some cases.

With the equity markets off to a strong start this week, the live cattle complex also pushed an impressive rally to start Monday's trade off strong. This week it will be interesting to note how fed cash cattle prices trend, as packers need to stay engaged enough in the market to avoid becoming short bought for the weeks ahead, but it's unlikely that the market will trade better than steady, as packers do have some immediate supply around them. It will also be interesting to note how boxed beef prices will trade as seasonally it's expected that demand should soften. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas and Texas.

The feeder cattle complex was aggressively traded higher into Monday's noon hour as most of the contracts traded anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher. From a cow-calf producer's standpoint, it's stress-relieving to see the market trade higher, as again this week Superior Livestock Auction is going to be hosting their Week in the Rockies Sale. It will again help set the tone for what feeder cattle prices could be later this fall.

The lean hog complex traded mostly higher into Monday's noon hour as traders are pleased to see the slight uptick in pork demand. Last week, demand was sluggish, and it gravely affected the futures complex. Wild price swings were the theme of this morning's cutout report as the belly was up $13.83, the picnic was up $7.15 and the rib was up $4.76.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/07142117/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 16 3/4 cents and December corn was down 16 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 24 cents and November soybeans were down 28 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 8 1/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 0 cents.Another Monday, another very ugly day for price action across grain futures as traders came back from the Independence Day break eager to add short positions to their portfolios. In fact, September corn futures haven't opened a trading week with a positive session since May 19, while August soybean futures have also traded lower in five out of the past six Monday sessions. Traders were clearly frustrated that the most recent wave of trade optimism following the agreement with Vietnam last week didn't amount to further ag-centric announcements from President Trump. Meanwhile, growing season weather is friendly and market seasonality is firmly against prices at this point. Ag markets were not alone in expressing tariff and trade-related nervousness, as stock indices fell on Monday as well ahead of the July 9th tariff deadline, although it is appearing likely the deadline will be extended in some cases.LIVESTOCK:With the equity markets off to a strong start this week, the live cattle complex also pushed an impressive rally to start Monday's trade off strong. This week it will be interesting to note how fed cash cattle prices trend, as packers need to stay engaged enough in the market to avoid becoming short bought for the weeks ahead, but it's unlikely that the market will trade better than steady, as packers do have some immediate supply around them. It will also be interesting to note how boxed beef prices will trade as seasonally it's expected that demand should soften. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Kansas and Texas.The feeder cattle complex was aggressively traded higher into Monday's noon hour as most of the contracts traded anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher. From a cow-calf producer's standpoint, it's stress-relieving to see the market trade higher, as again this week Superior Livestock Auction is going to be hosting their Week in the Rockies Sale. It will again help set the tone for what feeder cattle prices could be later this fall. The lean hog complex traded mostly higher into Monday's noon hour as traders are pleased to see the slight uptick in pork demand. Last week, demand was sluggish, and it gravely affected the futures complex. Wild price swings were the theme of this morning's cutout report as the belly was up $13.83, the picnic was up $7.15 and the rib was up $4.76.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/07142117/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

University of Missouri Extension’s Crop and Pest Management Field Day on July 10th is an opportunity to learn about best management practices for the most important weed, insect and disease pests in corn and soybean, said MU Extension weed scientist Kevin Bradley.

Bradley and his team will share results and recommendations related to weed management during the event at the MU Bradford Research Farm in Columbia. Participants will also hear updates on the status of herbicide-resistant Johnsongrass and waterhemp in Missouri. Bradley will discuss the implications of these developments on weed management in future production systems. There is a $30 fee for the event, which includes guided tours through the research plots, lunch and refreshments. Registration begins at 7:30 the morning of the 10th.

University of Missouri Extension’s Crop and Pest Management Field Day on July 10th is an opportunity to learn about best management practices for the most important weed, insect and disease pests in corn and soybean, said MU Extension weed scientist Kevin Bradley.Bradley and his team will share results and recommendations related to weed management during the event at the MU Bradford Research Farm in Columbia. Participants will also hear updates on the status of herbicide-resistant Johnsongrass and waterhemp in Missouri. Bradley will discuss the implications of these developments on weed management in future production systems. There is a $30 fee for the event, which includes guided tours through the research plots, lunch and refreshments. Registration begins at 7:30 the morning of the 10th.-NAFB

Missouri extension’s crop and pest management field day

September corn closed up 2 1/4 cents and December corn was up 3 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed up 2 cents and November soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 1/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents.

September corn closed up 14 cents and December corn was up 10 cents. August soybeans closed up 28 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 24 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 23 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was up 19 1/4 cents.

Grain and oilseed markets were mixed to mostly positive on Thursday. Markets closed moderately below daily highs amid technical resistance ahead of the long weekend, with traders not quite willing to extend bullish price bets to the next level with the nearby weather outlook still appearing mostly favorable for growing crops. At this point, the rally is primarily driven by short covering ahead of the holiday break, with no significant changes to the underlying fundamental picture for row crop markets. Meanwhile, investors and traders spent the session awaiting the final House of Representative vote on the 2025 Budget bill. The final vote was delayed but eventually the bill did pass just minutes after the close of trade for Thursday, sending the legislation to President Trump's desk by Independence Day.

It's refreshing to see the live cattle complex traded fully higher into Thursday's close, and to see the spot August contracts fully and confidently trading above the market's 40-day moving average. At this point, it seems safe to assume that traders feel as if the market has endured enough immediate pressure, but it will be imperative that fundamental support begins to improve early next week if traders are going to keep with their current upward trend. Unfortunately, it's unlikely that the fed cash cattle will be able to trade higher as packers continue to build up supply around themselves, and at some point, boxed beef prices will likely break to fit the seasonal norm.

With the continued support of seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, the feeder cattle market also traded fully higher into Thursday's close. It will be especially interesting to see if Superior's Week in the Rockies sale (which happens all of next week) will be as strong as the Corn Belt Classic was. From a demand perspective, buyers are still in desperate need of calves, but the concern at the back of cow-calf producers' minds is that some buyers could elect to see how aggressive an influx of Mexican feeder cattle imports is going to be. And if that will give them another avenue to buy from and at a cheaper price.

It's been a tough fundamental week for the lean hog complex. Couple the dip in consumer demand with this morning's lousy export report, and it's no surprise that the contracts were trading lower into Thursday's closing bell. In this morning's pork cutout report, no major declines were seen, but with most of the cuts trading lower, that was enough pressure to push the carcass price lower, too.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/03150238/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed up 2 1/4 cents and December corn was up 3 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed up 2 cents and November soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 1/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents.FOR THE WEEK:September corn closed up 14 cents and December corn was up 10 cents. August soybeans closed up 28 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 24 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 23 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was up 19 1/4 cents.Grain and oilseed markets were mixed to mostly positive on Thursday. Markets closed moderately below daily highs amid technical resistance ahead of the long weekend, with traders not quite willing to extend bullish price bets to the next level with the nearby weather outlook still appearing mostly favorable for growing crops. At this point, the rally is primarily driven by short covering ahead of the holiday break, with no significant changes to the underlying fundamental picture for row crop markets. Meanwhile, investors and traders spent the session awaiting the final House of Representative vote on the 2025 Budget bill. The final vote was delayed but eventually the bill did pass just minutes after the close of trade for Thursday, sending the legislation to President Trump's desk by Independence Day.LIVESTOCK:It's refreshing to see the live cattle complex traded fully higher into Thursday's close, and to see the spot August contracts fully and confidently trading above the market's 40-day moving average. At this point, it seems safe to assume that traders feel as if the market has endured enough immediate pressure, but it will be imperative that fundamental support begins to improve early next week if traders are going to keep with their current upward trend. Unfortunately, it's unlikely that the fed cash cattle will be able to trade higher as packers continue to build up supply around themselves, and at some point, boxed beef prices will likely break to fit the seasonal norm. With the continued support of seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, the feeder cattle market also traded fully higher into Thursday's close. It will be especially interesting to see if Superior's Week in the Rockies sale (which happens all of next week) will be as strong as the Corn Belt Classic was. From a demand perspective, buyers are still in desperate need of calves, but the concern at the back of cow-calf producers' minds is that some buyers could elect to see how aggressive an influx of Mexican feeder cattle imports is going to be. And if that will give them another avenue to buy from and at a cheaper price.It's been a tough fundamental week for the lean hog complex. Couple the dip in consumer demand with this morning's lousy export report, and it's no surprise that the contracts were trading lower into Thursday's closing bell. In this morning's pork cutout report, no major declines were seen, but with most of the cuts trading lower, that was enough pressure to push the carcass price lower, too.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/03150238/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

The USDA will lead a trade mission to the Dominican Republic from July 13-17 to expand market access and boost America’s agricultural exports. The delegation includes 47 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and officials from several state departments of agriculture. Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Affairs Michelle Bekkering, who will lead the mission said “USDA is committed to opening up more export opportunities for American agriculture. This trade mission will connect U.S. exporters with key buyers, tapping into Latin America’s growing demand"  

The Dominican Republic is the fourth-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in the Western Hemisphere and the top market within the Central America Free Trade Agreement-Dominican Republic region. It’s helped increase U.S. exports to the Dominican Republic to $2.2 billion in 2024. The U.S. supplies 44 percent of the country’s agricultural imports.

The USDA will lead a trade mission to the Dominican Republic from July 13-17 to expand market access and boost America’s agricultural exports. The delegation includes 47 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and officials from several state departments of agriculture. Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Affairs Michelle Bekkering, who will lead the mission said “USDA is committed to opening up more export opportunities for American agriculture. This trade mission will connect U.S. exporters with key buyers, tapping into Latin America’s growing demand" The Dominican Republic is the fourth-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in the Western Hemisphere and the top market within the Central America Free Trade Agreement-Dominican Republic region. It’s helped increase U.S. exports to the Dominican Republic to $2.2 billion in 2024. The U.S. supplies 44 percent of the country’s agricultural imports.-NAFB

USDA trade mission heading to the Dominican Republic

As Americans fire up their grills on Independence Day and throughout the summer, the National Farmers Union highlights how little independence family farmers have in the marketplace. The “Farmers’ Share of the Food Dollar,” released this week, highlights how little family farmers earn compared to how much consumers pay at the grocery store. Family farmers get only a small fraction of their income from popular Independence Day foods, an average of as low as 16.3 percent of a $30 shopping cart. 

For example, one pound of ground beef costs an average of $5.99 a pound, and the farmer’s share is $2.08. An eight-count package of hamburger buns retails for $3.79, and the farmer’s share is nine cents, or 2.3 percent. One pound of lettuce is $3.55, and farmers get 29 cents. NFU President Rob Larew says, “Family farmers and ranchers are working harder than ever and taking home less, all while corporate monopolies make record profits.”

As Americans fire up their grills on Independence Day and throughout the summer, the National Farmers Union highlights how little independence family farmers have in the marketplace. The “Farmers’ Share of the Food Dollar,” released this week, highlights how little family farmers earn compared to how much consumers pay at the grocery store. Family farmers get only a small fraction of their income from popular Independence Day foods, an average of as low as 16.3 percent of a $30 shopping cart. For example, one pound of ground beef costs an average of $5.99 a pound, and the farmer’s share is $2.08. An eight-count package of hamburger buns retails for $3.79, and the farmer’s share is nine cents, or 2.3 percent. One pound of lettuce is $3.55, and farmers get 29 cents. NFU President Rob Larew says, “Family farmers and ranchers are working harder than ever and taking home less, all while corporate monopolies make record profits.”-NAFB

Family farmers don’t get much Independence on July 4th

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/02142633/30001-closing-markets.wav">HERE</a> to listen to audio for your closing markets

September corn closed up 12 cents and December corn was up 11 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed up 23 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 20 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 11 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 15 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 20 1/2 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.03 at 96.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 39.0 points at 44,768.0. August gold is up $13.10 at $3,362.90, September silver is up $0.34 at $36.74 and September copper is up $0.1090. August crude oil is up $1.95 at $67.40, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0795, August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0207 and August natural gas is up $0.071.

September corn futures closed up 12 cents to $4.18. December futures were up 11 1/2 cents to $4.33 1/2. In overnight trade, September futures appeared primed to test the $4.00 mark again and traded as low as $4.02 before buyers stepped in to ultimately send prices up 16 cents off the low by the close. It could be we are seeing traders' express satisfaction that the surge in recent bearish bias for the corn market is adequately priced in at this point.

Tuesday's Grain Crushing's report was neutral for the most part. Corn used for ethanol in May was 449.4 million bushels (mb), in line with expectations but about 1.3% less than in May 2024. In fact, monthly corn grind has fallen below the respective month from 2024 in four out of the past six months. Corn grind will need to average 473 mb per month over the final quarter of the marketing year to hit the USDA goal of 5.5 billion bushels (bb). At this point this seems like a stretch; I personally have lowered my estimate for 2024-25 corn crush to 5.45 bb. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that last week's ethanol production averaged 1.076 million barrels per day, the third straight weekly decline but still larger than the previous 4-year average for the same week.

In corn technicals, December futures rose to post their highest close since June 23. Prices once again were supported in the $4.15 to $4.20 range. The close back above the former contract low at $4.28 is a positive technical achievement. The short-term bullish objective should be to return prices to downtrend resistance in the upper $4.30s.

The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.92. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 14 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.04.

August soybeans surged 23 3/4 cents on Wednesday to $10.53 1/2. New-crop November soybeans followed suit, up 20 3/4 cents to $10.48. It was all around bullish session for the soybean complex as soybean oil futures started the session strong with a gap higher, pulling soybeans along for the ride but the market really took off midmorning with the announcement of the trade deal with Vietnam, which injected a new shot of trade optimism into the market.

Tuesday's Fats and Oils report was overall strong. USDA reported soybeans crushed in May totaled 203.68 mb, just slightly less than I was anticipating but still the strongest May on record at 6% higher than May 2024. The U.S. crush industry has only posted two months through the marketing year thus far at less than 200 mb, keeping the program on pace to hit the USDA goal of 2.420 bb of crush if not slightly more. I personally am penciling 2.425 bb for the marketing year. Also supportive were historically low soybean oil stocks for the end of May/beginning of June at 1.4 billion pounds, 19% less than in May 2024. Meanwhile meal stocks were 36% larger than in May 2024, adding to supply woes in that market. However, meal futures traded higher Wednesday as well amid a very technically oversold market in the short term as well as overwhelmingly positive influence from the soybean market.

In regard to the trade agreement with Vietnam, it is possible traders are viewing it more as a show of optimism that similar agreements will ultimately be reached with trading partners such as Japan and most importantly for soybeans, China. Vietnam is certainly no slouch in the soybean trade however, importing 38.75 mb of soybeans from the U.S. in 2024, good for ninth among buying countries.

In soybean technicals, November futures erupted through the major moving averages in the $10.35 to $10.40 range and have now reclaimed about 50% of last week's losses back to the June 18 high. $10.50 may be the next source of resistance for a sustained move higher. To the downside, a test of the 50-day moving average near $10.36 1/2 currently for support seems likely and will be an important technical test for gauging the staying power of the emerging price rally.

The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.76. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 54 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $10.00.

September Kansas City wheat closed 11 cents higher on Wednesday to $5.42 1/4. September Chicago wheat was 15 cents higher while MIAX Minneapolis September spring wheat was 20 1/2 cents higher. The spring wheat market continues to be the bull of the wheat complex, driven by lower year-over-year acreage and expanding drought concerns for Montana, Idaho, and eastern Washington. Winter wheat prices were able to shake off harvest pressure on Wednesday, riding a wave of overarching grain market positivity to close higher by double digits as well.

In world wheat markets, Paris milling futures recovered from a rough past week of trade which sent prices back near 2025 lows. The intense heat wave may be worth keeping an eye on for adverse effects, although the majority of the wheat is mature at this point and harvest just around the corner. In Russia, the International Grains Council (IGC) reported winter wheat harvest is 1% complete as of the end of June, a slow start to harvest which supported export offers through the past week although Russian offers still remain among the least expensive in the world according to the weekly IGC report.

In wheat technicals, September KC futures were able to move back above support at $5.37 on Wednesday, which will be an important level to watch for a retest in coming sessions. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages just below $5.50 are the immediate bullish target for a further retracement of last week's losses. The next round of support is currently seen near $4.27.

By MATT PIKEClick <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/02142633/30001-closing-markets.wav">HERE</a> to listen to audio for your closing marketsGENERAL COMMENTS:September corn closed up 12 cents and December corn was up 11 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed up 23 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 20 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 11 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 15 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 20 1/2 cents.The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.03 at 96.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 39.0 points at 44,768.0. August gold is up $13.10 at $3,362.90, September silver is up $0.34 at $36.74 and September copper is up $0.1090. August crude oil is up $1.95 at $67.40, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0795, August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0207 and August natural gas is up $0.071.CORN:September corn futures closed up 12 cents to $4.18. December futures were up 11 1/2 cents to $4.33 1/2. In overnight trade, September futures appeared primed to test the $4.00 mark again and traded as low as $4.02 before buyers stepped in to ultimately send prices up 16 cents off the low by the close. It could be we are seeing traders' express satisfaction that the surge in recent bearish bias for the corn market is adequately priced in at this point.Tuesday's Grain Crushing's report was neutral for the most part. Corn used for ethanol in May was 449.4 million bushels (mb), in line with expectations but about 1.3% less than in May 2024. In fact, monthly corn grind has fallen below the respective month from 2024 in four out of the past six months. Corn grind will need to average 473 mb per month over the final quarter of the marketing year to hit the USDA goal of 5.5 billion bushels (bb). At this point this seems like a stretch; I personally have lowered my estimate for 2024-25 corn crush to 5.45 bb. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that last week's ethanol production averaged 1.076 million barrels per day, the third straight weekly decline but still larger than the previous 4-year average for the same week.In corn technicals, December futures rose to post their highest close since June 23. Prices once again were supported in the $4.15 to $4.20 range. The close back above the former contract low at $4.28 is a positive technical achievement. The short-term bullish objective should be to return prices to downtrend resistance in the upper $4.30s.The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.92. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 14 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.04.SOYBEANS:August soybeans surged 23 3/4 cents on Wednesday to $10.53 1/2. New-crop November soybeans followed suit, up 20 3/4 cents to $10.48. It was all around bullish session for the soybean complex as soybean oil futures started the session strong with a gap higher, pulling soybeans along for the ride but the market really took off midmorning with the announcement of the trade deal with Vietnam, which injected a new shot of trade optimism into the market.Tuesday's Fats and Oils report was overall strong. USDA reported soybeans crushed in May totaled 203.68 mb, just slightly less than I was anticipating but still the strongest May on record at 6% higher than May 2024. The U.S. crush industry has only posted two months through the marketing year thus far at less than 200 mb, keeping the program on pace to hit the USDA goal of 2.420 bb of crush if not slightly more. I personally am penciling 2.425 bb for the marketing year. Also supportive were historically low soybean oil stocks for the end of May/beginning of June at 1.4 billion pounds, 19% less than in May 2024. Meanwhile meal stocks were 36% larger than in May 2024, adding to supply woes in that market. However, meal futures traded higher Wednesday as well amid a very technically oversold market in the short term as well as overwhelmingly positive influence from the soybean market.In regard to the trade agreement with Vietnam, it is possible traders are viewing it more as a show of optimism that similar agreements will ultimately be reached with trading partners such as Japan and most importantly for soybeans, China. Vietnam is certainly no slouch in the soybean trade however, importing 38.75 mb of soybeans from the U.S. in 2024, good for ninth among buying countries.In soybean technicals, November futures erupted through the major moving averages in the $10.35 to $10.40 range and have now reclaimed about 50% of last week's losses back to the June 18 high. $10.50 may be the next source of resistance for a sustained move higher. To the downside, a test of the 50-day moving average near $10.36 1/2 currently for support seems likely and will be an important technical test for gauging the staying power of the emerging price rally.The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.76. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 54 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $10.00.WHEAT:September Kansas City wheat closed 11 cents higher on Wednesday to $5.42 1/4. September Chicago wheat was 15 cents higher while MIAX Minneapolis September spring wheat was 20 1/2 cents higher. The spring wheat market continues to be the bull of the wheat complex, driven by lower year-over-year acreage and expanding drought concerns for Montana, Idaho, and eastern Washington. Winter wheat prices were able to shake off harvest pressure on Wednesday, riding a wave of overarching grain market positivity to close higher by double digits as well.In world wheat markets, Paris milling futures recovered from a rough past week of trade which sent prices back near 2025 lows. The intense heat wave may be worth keeping an eye on for adverse effects, although the majority of the wheat is mature at this point and harvest just around the corner. In Russia, the International Grains Council (IGC) reported winter wheat harvest is 1% complete as of the end of June, a slow start to harvest which supported export offers through the past week although Russian offers still remain among the least expensive in the world according to the weekly IGC report.In wheat technicals, September KC futures were able to move back above support at $5.37 on Wednesday, which will be an important level to watch for a retest in coming sessions. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages just below $5.50 are the immediate bullish target for a further retracement of last week's losses. The next round of support is currently seen near $4.27.